Dear Valued Hybrid Customer...

Toyota isn't so green afterall... And does owning a hybrid make sense ?

Let us assure you that the Prius remains one of the most fuel-efficient cars
on the road. Toyota applauds your willingness to spend $9,500 over the price
of any comparable vehicle for the privilege of saving, at current gasoline
prices, approximately $580 a year.

And should the price of gasoline rise to $5, after 10 years and/or 130,000
miles of driving, you might even come close to breaking even on your
investment in hybrid technology.

Contrary to any loose statements made by our marketing partners in the
environmental community and media, petroleum not consumed by Prius owners is
not "saved." It does not remain in the ground. It is consumed by someone
else. Greenhouse pollutants are released. Also, please note that the
warranty and owner's manual say nothing about reducing America's dependence
on foreign oil. This is not an oversight. The Prius is an "oil-dependent"
vehicle. It runs on gasoline, supplied by the same world market that fuels
other vehicles.

The Toyota Corporation regrets any misunderstanding our marketing may
inadvertently have caused (or may cause in the future).

We share your belief that the days of the internal combustion engine are
numbered. Further research by our economists suggests this will happen when
the price of gasoline rises high enough to make alternative technologies
cheaper than gasoline-powered cars.

We at Toyota want you to know we recognize this effect and have taken steps
to compensate with the rest of our vehicle lineup.

Our 2006 Tundra pickup will be equipped with Toyota's new eight-cylinder
engine, making it every bit as much of a gas guzzler as any American pickup.
We are also redirecting our efforts to use our Hybrid Synergy Drive to
increase power output rather than reduce gasoline consumption.

Take our new hybrid SUV, which produces 38 more horsepower but gets the same
mileage as our conventional version. A New York Times reviewer wrote, "One
question lingers after driving the 2006 Lexus RX400h: How did it come to
this, that Toyota is now selling a hybrid gas-electric vehicle with no
tangible fuel economy benefits?"

We hope this corrects any misimpression caused by our latest slogan
("Commute with Nature"). Hybrid technology is not "green" technology. Like
heated seats or flashy exterior trim, it's merely an expensive option that
generates large markups for the Toyota Corporation and its dealers.

You will share our pride in the latest figures from J.D. Power & Associates,
which show that the Prius continues to move off a dealer's lot in just eight
days, compared to 36 days for a Honda Civic hybrid. Clearly, our customers
are willing to pay handsomely for the privilege of showing themselves behind
the wheel of so conspicuously virtuous a vehicle.

But we are also a far-seeing corporation. We recognize that the Prius's
distinctiveness may be a wasting asset for reasons outlined in this letter.
Other motorists may see the Prius operator and think "sucker." Our lawyers
advise us this may affect your car's resale value. Toyota regrets any
inconvenience.

We want you to know that Toyota remains committed to advancing hybrid
technology just as long as our customers are willing to make it worth our
while. Our esteemed competitor, Nissan's Carlos Ghosn, was recently quoted
saying, "There's such a buzz today that no CEO of a car manufacturer dares
to say his real opinion of hybrid because he's accused of being retarded."

Another esteemed competitor, GM, has suggested that hybrid technology is
best deployed in city buses, where large fuel consumption and stop-and-go
driving might actually make it economically sensible.

These are just two examples of the short-sighted, stick-in-the-mud marketing
instincts of our fellow automakers that are helping to make Toyota the
largest car company in the world.

Yours Truly, the Toyota Corporation.

BUSINESS WORLD
By HOLMAN W. JENKINS, JR.

November 30, 2005; Page A19

www.wsj.com

"Larry Bud" > wrote in message
oups.com...
>
> fclaugus wrote:
> > Toyota isn't so green afterall... And does owning a hybrid make sense ?
>
> Every new technology is priced at a premium when it first comes out
> until volume can decrease manufacturing costs. If the product is
> viable enough, volume WILL increase. Look at every new CPU, HDTV, DVD
> Player, CD Player, VCR, etc. The costs of each of those are now
> fractions of what they first were introduced into the market. Hell,
> DVD players were $400 5 years ago. Now they're $40 throw-aways.
>
> So the question isn't "Is the hybrid currently cost-effective?", the
> question is "will the hybrid be around long enough so that increased
> volume makes it cost-effective?".
>
> Only time will tell.

Not at $2 a gallon, anyway... And even if everyone in the usa had a hybrid,
oil consumption would return to it's current level in a matter of a few
years because low gas prices would increase consumption. Not to mention the
strong growth in the economy. In effect, hybrids would only delay the
inevitable for maybe a few years, which is the depletion of world oil
reserves.

> So the question isn't "Is the hybrid currently cost-effective?", the
> question is "will the hybrid be around long enough so that increased
> volume makes it cost-effective?".
>
> Only time will tell.

Friend: "I'm going to get a hybrid!"

Me: "Do you really want to spend $8000 in new batteries every few years?"

Friend: "Huh? What are you talking about?"

Me: "Think about what ever goes bad with anything you buy which uses
rechargeable batteries after a few years; flashlights, shavers, cordless
drills - you name it. The device is still good, but the batteries wear out.
It ends up usually cheaper to buy a whole new device."

Man, these hybrid doo-gooders are in for a ruuuude awakening.

> > So the question isn't "Is the hybrid currently cost-effective?", the
> > question is "will the hybrid be around long enough so that increased
> > volume makes it cost-effective?".
> >
> > Only time will tell.
>
> Not at $2 a gallon, anyway...

You don't know that. In 5 or 10 years it could be that it's a $500
option to have a hybrid over gas only. Used to be that an automatic
transmission was extra, now often a manual tranny costs more.

> And even if everyone in the usa had a hybrid,
> oil consumption would return to it's current level in a matter of a few
> years because low gas prices would increase consumption.

Not necessarily. People have a finite amount of time to of
discretionary travel, so there IS a limit to the amount of miles that
can be driven, hence a finite amount of fuel that people can burn in a
given amount of time.


> Not to mention the
> strong growth in the economy. In effect, hybrids would only delay the
> inevitable for maybe a few years, which is the depletion of world oil
> reserves.

Technically "world oil reserves" are depleted every time you fill your
tank, so I'm not sure what your point is, except to try and make a
political point using some hot button verbage.

JohnH wrote:
> > So the question isn't "Is the hybrid currently cost-effective?", the
> > question is "will the hybrid be around long enough so that increased
> > volume makes it cost-effective?".
> >
> > Only time will tell.


> Me: "Think about what ever goes bad with anything you buy which uses
> rechargeable batteries after a few years; flashlights, shavers, cordless
> drills - you name it. The device is still good, but the batteries wear out.
> It ends up usually cheaper to buy a whole new device."

There definitely is more to being cost effective than just taking
initial purchase price into account, but as battery technology and
volume increases, battery costs will go down. Don't forget however, on
the other side of the balance sheet is the tax break you get from
buying one.

I personally don't get the warm fuzzies with hybrid technology, but
battery costs may be irrelevant if one can lease a hybrid in the
future. Then it'll be the dealer's problem.

"Larry Bud" > wrote in message
oups.com...
> > > So the question isn't "Is the hybrid currently cost-effective?", the
> > > question is "will the hybrid be around long enough so that increased
> > > volume makes it cost-effective?".
> > >
> > > Only time will tell.
> >
> > Not at $2 a gallon, anyway...
>
> You don't know that. In 5 or 10 years it could be that it's a $500
> option to have a hybrid over gas only. Used to be that an automatic
> transmission was extra, now often a manual tranny costs more.

Moot point, gas prices are not going to be $2 a gallon in 5 to 10 years.

> > And even if everyone in the usa had a hybrid,
> > oil consumption would return to it's current level in a matter of a few
> > years because low gas prices would increase consumption.
>
> Not necessarily. People have a finite amount of time to of
> discretionary travel, so there IS a limit to the amount of miles that
> can be driven, hence a finite amount of fuel that people can burn in a
> given amount of time.

I'll use your answer, you don't know that. People will demand more cars and
more people will drive. Furthermore, electric companies would also consume
more oil if the cost was low enough. And cheap oil would be used for other
uses that are currently cost prohibitave.

> > Not to mention the
> > strong growth in the economy. In effect, hybrids would only delay the
> > inevitable for maybe a few years, which is the depletion of world oil
> > reserves.
>
> Technically "world oil reserves" are depleted every time you fill your
> tank, so I'm not sure what your point is, except to try and make a
> political point using some hot button verbage.

You are wrong again ....

These are the oil reserves I was talking about:
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0872964.html
Greatest Oil Reserves by Country, 2005
Rank Country Proved reserves
(billion barrels)
1. Saudi Arabia 261.9
2. Canada 178.81
3. Iran 125.8
4. Iraq 115.0
5. Kuwait 101.5
6. United Arab Emirates 97.8
7. Venezuela 77.2
8. Russia 60.0
9. Libya 39.0
10. Nigeria 35.3


Source: Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 102, No. 47 (Dec. 10, 2004). From: U.S.
Energy Information Administration.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/petroleu.html .

> I personally don't get the warm fuzzies with hybrid technology, but
> battery costs may be irrelevant if one can lease a hybrid in the
> future. Then it'll be the dealer's problem.


A dealer will either be smart enough to know this upfront and charge
separately for "battery wear" or won't be around for very long to lease
anything.

fclaugus wrote:

> "Larry Bud" > wrote in message
> oups.com...
> >
> > fclaugus wrote:
> > > Toyota isn't so green afterall... And does owning a hybrid make sense ?
> >
> > Every new technology is priced at a premium when it first comes out
> > until volume can decrease manufacturing costs. If the product is
> > viable enough, volume WILL increase. Look at every new CPU, HDTV, DVD
> > Player, CD Player, VCR, etc. The costs of each of those are now
> > fractions of what they first were introduced into the market. Hell,
> > DVD players were $400 5 years ago. Now they're $40 throw-aways.
> >
> > So the question isn't "Is the hybrid currently cost-effective?", the
> > question is "will the hybrid be around long enough so that increased
> > volume makes it cost-effective?".
> >
> > Only time will tell.
>
> Not at $2 a gallon, anyway... And even if everyone in the usa had a hybrid,
> oil consumption would return to it's current level in a matter of a few
> years because low gas prices would increase consumption.

That's a misunderstanding of the law of supply and demand.

It also presumes that ppl *want* to drive more. I doubt that's true.

Graham

> That's a misunderstanding of the law of supply and demand.
>
> It also presumes that ppl *want* to drive more. I doubt that's true.

I'm tired of explaining basic econ.... When price goes down, long term
demand will go up. I never said people would drive more. It's possible that
more people would drive and oil would be used more for other purposes such
as power generation. Also, services such as shipping and air travel become
cheaper, leading to more demand for those services, which consume large
quanities of oil derived fuels.

On 1 Dec 2005 12:04:04 -0800, "Larry Bud" >
wrote:

>
>fclaugus wrote:
>> Toyota isn't so green afterall... And does owning a hybrid make sense ?
>
>Every new technology is priced at a premium when it first comes out
>until volume can decrease manufacturing costs. If the product is
>viable enough, volume WILL increase. Look at every new CPU, HDTV, DVD
>Player, CD Player, VCR, etc. The costs of each of those are now
>fractions of what they first were introduced into the market. Hell,
>DVD players were $400 5 years ago. Now they're $40 throw-aways.

And NOTHING about a car has ever decreased in cost.